The Good News and the Bad News -- WMDs Finally Discovered in Iraq

This could get ugly

The good news is that the United States military has finally located viable chemical weapons in Iraq.

The bad news is that the weapons in question, chlorine gas, have been used in two insurgent bomb attacks in Baghdad and were almost certainly smuggled into Iraq or manufactured in country after the 2003 invasion. The largely ignored political implication of this development is gold for Democratic pundits. Iraq lacked Weapons of Mass Destruction before the 2003 invasion but, thanks in large part to the mismanaged occupation, has them now. Or at least terrorists in Iraq have them.

The people of Baghdad, and potentially US troops, are now under chemical attack in Iraq.

Mission Accomplished.

Not As Bad As It Sounds

Pithy political jabs aside, the use of chlorine gas by the Iraqi insurgency presents a host of complications to war planers. Chemical Weapons are, as stressed repeated by the Bush Administration, weapons of mass destruction. The use of these weapons in the Iraq conflict signals an escalation by the insurgency, though at this point that escalation is largely symbolic. Even a symbolic escalation isn't something to be ignored and the United States has already begun responding to the attacks and considering the implications.

Among chemical munitions chlorine gas is both primitive and cumbersome. First used by the Germans in the Second battles of Ypres, chlorine requires long exposure, high concentrations, and fairly stable atmosphiric conditions to kill. The use of explosives in the delivery of a chlorine gas payload significantly diminishes its effectiveness as a lethal agent, dispersing the gas too violently to allow fatal exposure in most cases.

So long as the insurgency continues to use explosives and containers of chlorine gas there is no real risk of a serious chemical attack. Chlorine exposure will pose an inconvenience rather than a serious danger to US troops and the citizens of Baghdad though there will undoubtedly be some casualties.

But It's the Thought That Counts.

The chemical attacks raise three distinct possibilities for the future of the Iraqi conflict. Optimistically, the use of chemical agents may be a short lived phenomina brought about by an insurgent windfall of caustic chemicals. If no means of resupply exists, the chemical attacks will fade as stocks are depleted and the insurgency will move on to other techniques and weapons.

Alternatively, these attacks may demonstrate an well organized attempt to magnify the fear and visibility of conventional bomb attacks. Incorporating caustic industrial chemicals into attacks is likely to inspire fear and complicate clean-up. If the insurgency has secured a reliable supply of industrial toxins and has judged them sufficiently effective the attacks will continue. Fortunately, the overall lethality of insurgent car bombings is unlikely to increase appreciably with the inclusion of industrial toxins. At most, chemical exposure may result in more injuries and greater psychological impact from insurgent attacks.

In a more pessimistic scenario the use of chlorine is a herald of things to come. Though explosives are a poor dispersal mechanism for chlorine gas, they are ideal for more sophisticated chemical munitions. Various nerve gases and other more powerful blister agents are highly effective under explosive dispersement. If these chemicals were used by the insurgency the resulting casualties would number in the thousands or tens of thousands. The threat of more sophisticated munitions gives new significance to ready stocks of chemical weapons in Iran and Syria and highlights persistent American failures to close Iraqi borders to arms traffickers. If the insurgency has acquired small stocks of modern chemical weapons, chlorine serves as an effective means of evaluating dispersion techniques.

What Next?

What comes next will determine the severity, but not the character, of the continued Iraq occupation. The use of chlorine gas by the insurgency represents at best a minor escalation and at worst the precursor to more horrific attacks to come. In either case the conflict is rapidly approaching a full scale civil war with significant repercussions for the occupying US military. As the few allies remaining prepare to exit the Iraqi theater the United States risks facing the snowballing situation alone.

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Iraqi Militants Use Chlorine in 3 Bombings

The New York Times

Sat Feb 24

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