What Are The Iranians Thinking?

I'd put my money on the idea that Iran is bluffing. They are flexing their muscles while the United States in entangled in Iraq to secure a better hand during diplomatic rounds.

Iran is simply taking advantage of the situation. These British Soldiers were at the wrong place at the wrong time, and now Iran wants to stay I ain't scared of you @!$%#es and Britain is like Ah c'mon man...

It might be portrayed as a bluff, but the guys running Iran are dying for the opportunity of their people being attacked, because then they will justify the continuation of nuclear projects.

They'll say something like well we were just going to do peaceful nuclear @!$%#, but it sounds like we should probably do some crazy nuclear @!$%#, ya know, to defend ourselves from you crazy people.

I hate it when people on both sides exploit events for their own political agenda, but sadly it happens everyday and unfortunately U.N. does not seem to have enough power (currently) to deal with this.

I'm not asking for drastic measures, just that people stop with double standards.

If you don't want to be treated like @!$%#, don't treat others like @!$%#.

Here are the keywords for "Zaki's Remember this crazy-ass story?" of the day.

The words are spy, china, plane, dismantle.

The quote is "HEY YOU, GIVE ME BACK MY SPY PLANE!"

Bahaha. That was a classic.

"Pocket Aces" is closest to what I'd choose, but it's inaccurate. He doesn't actually have a bunch of advantages, but he knows his opposition isn't playing with a full deck, so why not press on?

Land wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, dwindling popularity at home, a tide of ill will surging globally... even given any technological advantages the US military may have, American forces are at a disadvantage by being spread so thin and supported so spottily, and Ahmedinajad (or whoever in the clergy is pulling Ahmedinajad's strings) knows it.

Its a case of both Iran and the USA deliberately overblowing these issues to serve their own political agenda.

I think it is rather arrogant to claim that they

Tehran is facing off against the most powerful military in the world, perhaps the most powerful in human history. Out-spent, out-gunned, and out-classed, Iran's aggressive stance and hostile overtures against the United States seem the posturings of a madman.

You give the USA far to much importance and influence.

I will put up an answer to what they are thinking in a few hours as I can not fit it in here.

Well according to CNN 5 minutes ago, Iran is granting the 15 prisoners amnesty and returning them to Britain.

I SPY, unless you have evidence otherwise, the current US military is in fact the most powerful coordinated military in the world, without exception. The US military has not only developed continuing refinements in its capacity to deliver both wide-spread and targeted destruction, but they have never officially indicated that they would not use tactical nuclear devices. Whether the US can deliver effectively on the ground with its current troops depends on the tactics and strategy involved, and whatever political constraints are placed on it. The potential for destruction has never been higher - outside of the use of ICBM nuclear delivery systems during the Cold War arms race.

The current array of tactical satellite platforms is more than adequate to address and track military operations in the country of its choice. Whether the US military leadership has adequate leadership and expertise is open to question and criticism.

This being said, the critical components of this are whether the President cares to risk an attack, whether redeployment of ground troops into Iran will be effective, and what if any world reaction will need to be addressed. If you look back over the actions and words delivered during the tenure of the administration, you can effectively assess these elements and probability. You can be assured that the US military strategists have been studying scenarios involving Iran for a long time.

Also if you look at the combined oil resources of Iran and Venezuela, as components of US oil imports you will find that they represent 12% of the +20million barrels of oil per day - fourth over all but only due to Venezuela - we directly import no oil from Iran. On the other hand, the US market represents, on average 41% of Iraq's oil exports, 44% of Venezuela's, 55% of Nigeria's, 92% of Mexico's and 99% of Canada's. So there is a possibility of Venezuela using it's marketshare to leverage sanctions against the US in an attack against Iran - but only to a significant deteriment to its own economy - which is struggling.

All that being said - I am not an apologist for the US military nor do I condone the use of military for anything other than purely defensive strategies. Military is, to paraphase a quote from George Washington, like fire - a dangerous servant and a fearful master.

Or as General Douglas MacArthur is quotes as saying:" I have known war as few men now living have known it. It's very destructiveness on both friend and foe has rendered it useless as a means of settling international disputes."

I am inclined to agree with the General.

I'll tell you exactly what Iran's leaders are thinking - they're all morons who can't govern, so they need to act like the big hero in front of the Great Satans to maintain their crumbling popular support. It won't be them fighting and dying in the potential war.

I think the lesson that America is learning is that to defeat a terrorist you must become a terrorist.
Instead of fighting with rules, such as limiting civilian casualties, and holding prisoners without beheading them, your battle plan must be made without regard to who dies and hold back nothing.

The governments in the middle east hate America. They want the U.S. crushed and left smoldering.
It has been demonstrated over and over again governments in the middle east are not capable of embracing peace

It was reported yesterday the Iran will have nuclear war capability as soon as 2009. I think given that capability Iran will use it.

The U.S. already has nuculear capability...

Kfile

I am not sure how you are renumerated but your sensationalism will certainly make you and those who sponsor you wealthly people.

Take from it -> that is exactly what the Iranians are doing.

Oil is the prize

After the Arabs / Persians / Turks ousted the British from the region, creation of the State of Israel delt the USofA into the game.

I got a novel idea-:--Lets make believe these are people that have not left their country to annoy anyone-[plz no Persian Empire jokes}--Johnny Bull an his Uncle Sam who live in another world are busy raising the surrounding neighborhood---as the have done so many times in the last century---messing up much of their[Iran] house as well. Now these "Jolly Fellows" want to tell them what they can an cannot do in their own[IRAN] house. What could be wrong with them[Iranians]? Are they deaf? They must be bluffing!

While Tehran's insistence that it seeks only peaceful and civilian use of nuclear power is certainly plausible, the Iranian government has offered little more than protests to offset its belligerent stance towards the equally bellicose United States.

Didn't it invite U.N. regulators to tour the plants? Do you consider that "little"? Could you explain what else you would have them do.

Great analysis of the current situation and possible moves by Iran. One of the most intelligent articles on the topic I've come across. But I believe that we're all missing Iran's P.O.A. I was watching President Ahmadinejad's speech today on BBC World and something clicked in my head. Iran isn't looking for a confrontation. They're being confrontational to make the U.S.A. fumble and do something stupid/rash, which, if you think about it, isn't a far-fetched possibility, considering the current administration. It's all to make the world realise what's going on in the Middle East. There's this juggernaut military machine going around invading countries and causing major conflict and suffering, and the world is doing nothing. Like a person hiding from a man-eating tiger who's made the decision to call for help, even though the person knows that the beast will also hear its cry, there is a chance that help might arrive first. And in the case of Venezuela, it has.

India and Russia have strong economic ties with Iran. In fact, India just commissioned a U.S.-opposed pipeline that will bring oil to a nation that needs it. Worst case scenario: If Iran is attacked, I'm afraid we might see World War 3.

it is just chest beating
iran is telling bush, your tough talk does nothing here, your sanctions are a joke and the more you push us, the more we will push back and publically embarrass you.
Our bark would probably carry more weight if we werent stuck behind the fence. Iran knows we are mired down in iraq, and a war in iran would only make the war in iraq even more difficult and probably split iraq between sa and iran.

Iran also doesnt really have a functional leadership, many groups like the revolutionary guard (who we captured a couple of thier diplomates that were in iraq at the request of the iraq president), can act on their own some what.

People also like to ignore how busy of a shipping area and how small the gulf really is, with all those warship in it.

the only thing that scares me, is bush appears to be full steam ahead stay the neo con failing course. He knows no matter what happens he will be pardoned, and if he can just keep congress delayed, he can finish more of his adgenda.
I think we will definiatly attack iran before bush leaves office.

another scary though is the 'cry wolf" syndrum, perhaps iran is seeking nukes for evil reasons but know that our credibily has been ruined by our idiot president and know they can get away with it.
Another reason bush needs to be impeached, so that we can credibly deal with countries like iran.
You dont give a medal to a guy that got all the intel wrong.. what is bush trying to tell the world? Hey you faked intel you get a brownie? (seriously i would let the GOP have their pick of a bush replacement as long as they get rid of bush, heck i would let pnac choose his replacement)

" perhaps Iran is seeking nukes for evil reasons "-------------get a grip on the beef!---for evil reasons?---what do you suppose this EVIL reason is?---They have no track record of belligerence--LIKE MANY COUNTRIES THAT DO HAVE THEM----could it be self protection? Where do you get your ideas from? A CRYSTAL BALL-?--It seems to me --whether you like these countries or not -- is the test as to whether you think they can have a nuke. But --guess what? Sooner or later every nation will have nukes--maybe then we will all respect each other--MAYBE THAT'S WHY THEY WANT THE BIG STICK--SO THEY DON'T GET KICKED AROUND ANYMORE-----. Mmmmm---sounds evil to me! [ cough!]

I think Iran is thinking that they have the sovereign right to pursue nuclear technology as other countries have done in the past without the more recent and strenuous oversights by the UN and world community.

"Axis of Evil" or not, does Iran get a pass on nuclear monitoring and controls because other countries were given a pass prior to the IAEA and UN regulations on nuclear development? Is it hypocritical for countries with nuclear weapons to seek to prevent non-nuclear nations from developing or acquiring nuclear weapons?

My view is that controls need to be enforced by countries who both have and do not have nuclear weapons. Bad policies and activities of the past do not justify ongoing stupidity.

All this leads me to think that I am glad I traded in my right to Iranian citizenship for a commision in the US Coast Guard.

do a check---other countries were given a pass as well---depends on who your friends are --don't delude yourself--Iagree with the rest though--

This was a very thoughtfully compiled piece, thanks very much. One typo, "sew discontent" should read "sow discontent."

I agree that most of what Iran does is posturing, but for the most part it's posturing for their domestic concerns. It's the mirror image of Bush's manipulations: create fear about your enemies' threats and you'll be able to quash dissent and keep power unquestioned.