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Pakistan's Tipping Point: Musharraf Implicated In Bhutto Assassination

Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:50 AM EST
world-news, military, pakistan, terrorism, terror, army, bombing, assassination, musharraf, bhutto, prevez-musharaff
By Killfile
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Banazir Bhutto is dead. The late Pakistani politician and secular reformer was shot through the neck and chest by a suicide bomber who then detonated his explosives, killing some 20 bystanders.

This is not the first time that bombers and would-be assassins targeted Bhutto. A previous assassination attempt in October left her unharmed, but Bhutto implicated several aids close to President Pervez Musharraf as orchestrators of the attacks and strongly implied Musharraf's involvement in the plot.

Indeed the bad blood between Musharraf and Bhutto stretches back some years and Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly demonstrated the depth of his commitment to see Bhutto kept from political power in Pakistan.

Musharraf has used every tool at his disposal against Bhutto. He has amended the Pakistani constitution to keep former Prime Ministers from office and placed Bhutto under house arrest rather than face her and her political supporters openly.

While the identity of Bhutto's killer remains a mystery, her supporters require little more than the motive and means outlined above to place blame. Bhutto's supporters - surrounding the hospital where she died - have been chanting "Dog, Musharraf, dog" and foreign media outlets are already airing interviews blaming Musharraf for the assassination.

This will be Pakistan's tipping point.

With Musharraf's legitimacy in serious doubt, his authority as a President called into question by the assassination, and a rapidly opening political scisim in the country the viability of Pakistan as a democratic republic is very much in question.

After being forced to give up his Army uniform to assume the Presidency, Musharaff's use of military force to maintain his power - particularly following the assassination of one of his most vocal and powerful critics - will end any pretenses of democratic legitimacy his government might have. Critics will unavoidably link such an action with Musharraf's lingering ties to the military and his betrayal of the Court ruling.

Indeed such a step may be viewed by many in Pakistan as the final and clinching proof of his involvement in Bhutto's assassination.

What happens next will shape the future of Pakistani politics and the wider Middle East for years to come. If the United States' strongest regional ally slips into a state of political chaos - or worse: civil war - the results could span decades and reshape the Middle East.

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  • Public Discussion (129)
Killfile

It doesn't take a historian to see the parallels between this and the assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand in the run-up to World War One.

I'm not suggesting that this will touch off a world war (though with India and Pakistan one can never be sure. Let's not forget that those two have never been the closest of friends) but merely that this is the spark in the Pakistani powder keg. Such an assassination can not be without consequences and Musharraf's legitimacy is tenuous already.

Something's got to give.

  • 18 votes
#1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:53 AM EST
Dennis P. McCannDeleted
Killfile

God I hope you're wrong. A civil war in Pakistan would be a nightmare. Open boarders, a nuclear arsenal, India waiting to pounce -- besides having the potential to be an absolute blood-bath it would destabilize the entire region for decades.

  • 16 votes
#1.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:06 AM EST
Adam Hobson

If this does lead to a scuffle between Pakistan and India, which side would we choose? Pakistan was on our side during the Cold War, but our relations with India are currently at their all time best. Needless to say but India is also greatly important to us economically.

Hopefully, nothing major comes of this.

  • 8 votes
#1.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:17 AM EST
Killfile

We'll stay out of it. No real good can come of intervening and given that neither side is likely to use ballistic delivery systems for any of their nuclear devices (if it comes to that) even US ABM technology (in its infancy though it is) will prove irrelevant in the conflict.

  • 8 votes
#1.4 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:24 AM EST
Bill Harrison

KF, Pakistan is not part of the Middle East. Further, the real power in Pakistan has always ultimately resided with the military and it's been that way since the country's founding by a secular Muslim lawyer. Pinky Bhutto was not without her own problems as well. To call her a reformer is a bit of a stretch considering her former regime's well-documented corruption which she inherited to some extent from the followers of her father Ali Bhutto who was hung by Zia who then in turn died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances. Whatever comes to pass in Pakistan keep one thing always uppermost in mind. Real power there flows out of the barrel of a gun and its much more important to watch the jockeying within the military than it is to watch what's happening in streets and in the corridors of de jure governmental power in Islamabad.

  • 11 votes
#1.5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:11 AM EST
Killfile

All power flows out of the barrel of a gun, though it is amusing to hear you quote Mao.

Pakistan is sort of part of the Middle East, not geogrpahically speaking - you're right about that - but in the sense that its ability to destabilize regions extends into the Middle East, mostly for cultural and religious reasons.

It's lazy of me to refer to it as part of the Middle East, you're right, but it's certainly apropos to the region and instability there has Middle Eastern consequences, not the least of which is in the US War on Terror.

As to Bhutto's corruption charges - it's worth pointing out that none were ever nailed to her specifically. Now that said, I wouldn't argue that she's all sunshine and lollipops but simply that her secular platform is very much in keeping with Western interests and priorities in the region. We've already seen the threat of extremist religious dominance from a group like the Taliban in that part of the world. Bhutto served as a regional player whose agenda would tend to keep Pakistan's nuclear stocks out of extremist hands.

  • 9 votes
#1.6 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:20 AM EST
Bill Harrison

Oh, I'm not saying that I'm glad Pinky Bhutto was killed. Far from it. The danger here would come if her more secular minded followers would be so enraged as to make common cause with the crazies in the MMA. I don't think that's likely to happen. This looks somewhat similar to the assassination of Sadat in the methods used and it smells suspiciously like the security forces guarding her may have been involved.

  • 4 votes
#1.7 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:00 PM EST
ShaunV

Definitely a powder keg.

Take cover.

  • 3 votes
#1.8 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:19 PM EST
Forest Browne

An auspicious but not surprising outcome. Interesting how the assassin first shot her dead and then blew himself up...pretty convenient for the ruling party. Hasn't it occurred to anyone that for the military to pull this off, and essentially they haven't yet, that the US would have had to give it's tacit approval. After all it's considerably easier to control a military dictatorship rather than a duly elected one especially with their propensity for being militaristic Muslims.

Guess we'll have to wait and see, but the implications are probably going to be less than many think.

Forest

  • 7 votes
#1.9 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:21 PM EST
Bill Harrison

Forest, you never disappoint. This post doesn't evince much in the way of knowledge of the situation in Pakistan. One, saying anything like "the military to pull this off" is kinda dumb. Most of the Pakistani military is favorably inclined toward the type of secular Western-oriented government espoused by the late Ms. Bhutto and even Musharraf for that matter but certain elements within it, and most importantly within the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, are not. Two, outside of the NW Frontier Agencies and Baluchistan there is almost no support in Pakistan for a "militaristic Muslim" government whatever that's supposed to mean. And, of course, you take the usual lame shot at Bush despite not offering a shred of evidence to back your position.

  • 4 votes
#1.10 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:02 PM EST
Forest Browne

Typical of you Bill, instead of listening to you rant on about what you hope will happen how about a little wager on whether Musharraf cancels the elections or declares marshal law....or hey double or nothing they do both. I t would be reasonable of you to think before you take this bet because unless it's money you can afford to lose be ready to pay up.

Make my day and remember if you will that this administration is wonderful at turning almost any situation into an unmitigated disaster, not specifically about Pakistan because frankly I couldn't care less as the Buhtto's have been collectively assassinated and convicted of corruption so many times it makes the min flutter. The Muslims and Hindu's have been at this for several hundred years and even though death and mayhem have ensued they still managed to break up India from the Muslim north, a natural segmentation of their country if your a big proponent of "nationalism", a pox on all proponents.

Oh and what lame shot a Bush? We won't know anything for 50 years so how could we possibly know, my suggestion is that it's as far away from what the administration is signaling to the public as to how it interprets the situation. That is a reasonable assumption let me know when you find something that has gone exactly the way they said it would. If you claim the "surge" I will laugh and refuse to respond so pick something worth while.

Have fun,

Forest

  • 4 votes
#1.11 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:14 PM EST
Bill Harrison

Sharif has already said he won't participate in the elections or have you been asleep all day? And even Chris Dodd has called for their postponement until the People's Party can settle on a new candidate. Further, the Bush administration has been the one to push Musharraf this far in giving up his uniform, suspending martial law and attempting to make nice with Bhutto. Some are saying now that they've actually pushed him too hard on this.

Again you evince next to no understanding of either Pakistan's history, the military's role in that history or the rival factions within it today. Instead you imply that Musharraf had Ms. Bhutto murdered with the "tacit approval of the US". That's the most despicable comment I've yet read today on this subject but all too typical of you. So you can take your bet and . . .

  • 4 votes
#1.12 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:33 PM EST
Forest Browne

Nasty rhetoric aside we will all notice that you have a difficult time getting out of the tree's to see the forest, so to speak, and solidify the fact that you don't want to take the bet because I'll be right...again...

Forest...no pun intended

  • 4 votes
#1.13 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:45 PM EST
Partisan Hack

KF, Pakistan is not part of the Middle East.

Kind of like saying that Turkey isn't really part of Europe. Even if it's technically true it sidesteps Pakistan's pivotal role in supporting terrorism in the Middle East and Afghanistan and its geographically central role.

Real power there flows out of the barrel of a gun and its much more important to watch the jockeying within the military than it is to watch what's happening in streets and in the corridors of de jure governmental power in Islamabad.

This has to be one of the more inane things that I have heard on NV. The street is about to eat Pakistan alive - an you're worried about generals jockeying for power. This is what got us into trouble in the first place - trying to finesse the military while continually ignoring the need to develop more stable political structures. "Power flows out of the barrel of a gun" because we've failed to come up with more intelligent policies that would preclude that tired axiom. China's eating our lunch in this region in part because they know how to work more multi-dimensionally with these cultures.

  • 4 votes
#1.14 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:23 PM EST
Laughman

its much more important to watch the jockeying within the military than it is to watch what's happening in streets

That's what they were saying about Iran - just before Khomeini rolled into town.

  • 4 votes
#1.15 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 4:08 AM EST
Bill Harrison

You two should know that Khomeini wouldn't have had a ghost of a chance in hell of succeeding in Iran without the assistance of elements of the military nor would Boris Yeltsin in the former Soviet Union when the hardliners tried to reassert themselves after Gorbachev's exit. The military has always been the key player in Pakistan's tumultuous history which is a fact I would expect the average college sophomore to understand but apparently it's lost on you two.

BTW, how'd those demonstrators in Tienamen Square make out?

  • 2 votes
#1.16 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:33 AM EST
I SPY

"a fact I would expect the average college sophomore to understand"

Bill Harrison I concur. There will be no Civil war. The Military will crush it.

  • 3 votes
#1.17 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:21 PM EST
gedanken_1

Khomeini wouldn't have had a ghost of a chance in hell of succeeding in Iran without the assistance of elements of the military nor would Boris Yeltsin in the former Soviet Union

The obvious masquerading as wisdom. Now, that's sophomoric.

Pakistan military is not an entity from another galaxy. They are of Pakistan. Eventually, they will follow the general path of their people(s). They are not going to kill millions to please the West or protect the privileges of a tiny minority.

  • 3 votes
#1.18 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:58 PM EST
Reply
Jesusa Bernardo

Terrible, terrible, terrible.

  • 6 votes
Reply#2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:56 AM EST
Aunk (The Cultural Health Guy)

Hetep and Respect Jesusa bernardo, Your words describe how I feel in hearing the news.

More Bush Blow Back. Anything Bush and the Wicked Witch of the West put there hands on turns to cra@@##$p

  • 4 votes
#2.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:23 PM EST
Jesusa Bernardo

Completely, Aunk.

"Bush and the Wicked Witch of the West" blessed the 2001 power grab in the Philippines and look where we are now....

  • 4 votes
#2.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:12 PM EST
Reply
Partisan Hack

Well, this is certainly a sad and unwelcome development, one that's more likely to push Pakistan to a more confrontational profile with the West. But in frank fairness, in the U.S. we've managed to take down Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King, George Wallace (almost), Paul Wellstone and numerous other political figures whose independence from the established power structure was deemed threatening to the political process. Such things are not new. Pakistan has been only nominally democratic since its inception anyway. I think the important thing to do is to proceed carefully in a way that does not push Pakistan further away from U.S. cooperation and closer to Iran, Russia and/or China.

  • 9 votes
Reply#3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:59 AM EST
Bill Harrison

Leave it to you to make a typically unsubstantiated (not to mention idiotic) claim that Paul Wellstone (not to mention MLK, RFK and Wallace) was assassinated by political opponents.

  • 5 votes
#3.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:13 AM EST
rbrazys

You forgot JFK and Malcom X.

And it wasn't the 'political process' they were a threat to. Just the established fascist regime that calls itself our 'protector'.

  • 2 votes
#3.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:47 PM EST
Bill Harrison

And don't forget Elvis.

  • 4 votes
#3.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:28 PM EST
gedanken_1

PH,

Bill Harrison is absolutely right. You are an idiot. :-)

When political leaders are assassinated in the USA, the killers are always lone gunman. Got it?

  • 4 votes
#3.4 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:37 PM EST
Bill Harrison

Nonsense. Arthur Bremer had at least three people helping him. He talked to them all the time -- in his head.

Now get thee to a grassy knoll.

  • 2 votes
#3.5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:35 PM EST
winsomecowboy

I do so enjoy 'daddy knows best' rightwingers. Its a cruel form of comedy but I have a weakness for it.

Panama? Venezuela? Splutter splutter.

  • 11 votes
#3.6 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 7:05 PM EST
Partisan Hack

I feel honored to be called an idiot by those who do so little to add value here at Newsvine.

  • 6 votes
#3.7 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:12 PM EST
Reply
Mykola Bilokonsky

Mmm, who is implicating Musharraf and what evidence do they have? I don't disagree with your assessment of the situation but I feel like you may be overselling it a bit. "Critics of Musharraf aren't surprised by the notion that he could be responsible" I could see, but there's thus far nothing directly pointing to the man.

Not that I'd put it past him at all.

  • 14 votes
Reply#4 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:01 AM EST
Dennis P. McCannDeleted
Killfile

Perhaps -- we're already seeing Bhutto's supporters charing that Musharraf was behind this though. Bhutto herself all but accused Musharraf of being behind a previous assassination attempt.

Indian media has aired at least one interview I'm aware of charging Musharraf with involvement in the attack.

I think that, at this point, the motive and means will be enough - that Pakistan is going to splinter along that alone.

  • 4 votes
#4.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:08 AM EST
ombra

In cases like this the facts don't get in the way of emotions. Even IF (a real big if) Musharraf had nothing to do with it, the appearance of it being him has a much bigger effect on what happens. In politics appearance is everything.

If Pakistan explodes, India will get very nervous. Two nuclear nations on the edge is not a good prospect for that part of the world.

  • 4 votes
#4.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:17 AM EST
Mridul Chadha

Most of the people (Bhutto's party members, Nawaz Sharif & even Bhutto's husband) have said that Musharraf didn't provide her with adequate security. Bhutto had informed the Pakistani government that some people were planning to kill her, she even gave them the names still the government failed to provide adequate security to either Bhutto or Sharif. For that i think Musharraf & his government are to be blamed.

  • 8 votes
#4.4 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:49 AM EST
Chasing

If I get a group of pre-schoolers to chant that Santa Claus did it, it would not then mean that Santa Claus is "implicated" (much less exists - though don't tell the poor pre-schoolers that). In the previous attempt, Bhutto seemed to have settled on "extremists" as the likely culprits - why would that not be the case, here? The timing of it just doesn't point to a Musharraf plot - there were better times to be done with her, and easier ways to do it, really. Is it possible he's aware of that and is just super-crafty, being behind this all the while? Possible, but I don't think likely, sensationalistic headline or not.

  • 3 votes
#4.5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 3:42 PM EST
TomPopp

Security Security Security. There is no evidence that Musharraf put out a hit on her, not even that he looked the other way when he new someone under him was planning something, but it is all over the place that she was requesting basic security measures that she didn't get. And yes, she stuck her head out of the top of the roof which was. . . well, as we know now, a poor decision.
Anyway, does he not hold some responsibility, however much he despised her, to make sure that she was secure? It could be done flippantly, putzing around with not putting into action the security she needed or it may have been deliberate, everyone knowing that many people were wanting to kill her so he sat back and waited - maybe! Just putting out some ideas here.
Yes, he's got his own security to worry about, too.
And I'm not blaming Bush, but his administration made her presence on that day possible. Could this be considered another unprepared moment for this administration? Should they have made sure she was secure and her basic security requests were fulfilled? Okay, sorry Bill, not trying to turn this thread that way.
Anyway - is Musharraf guilty? Maybe in an idle and possibly inadvertent?? form of sabotage. Kinda like manslaughter. Orrrr, maybe more calculated.

  • 1 vote
#4.6 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:37 AM EST
I SPY

Perhaps -- we're already seeing Bhutto's supporters charing that Musharraf was behind this though.

Thats amusing, What supporters? she could not even get the numbers to win a seat in the lower house. At most I would say she polled about five % of the vote. Dont pay any attention to that crap AP feeds you, she was a nothing like Shariff, thats why they wanted to boycott the vote, because they knew they could not even get a seat.

    #4.7 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:25 PM EST
    leonidasDeleted
    I SPYExpand Comment Comment collapsed by the community

    Ap dont have a correspondent in Pak. Nor do they have one in Iran or any central asian country. As for me having my own team on the ground, I have not worked in Pak for some years but I know two Foreign Journo's there I worked with in the past and one local one. AP have Reuters. remember them, the ones who payed people to pull down Saddams statue.

    listen to I SPY. He's got his own team on the ground.

    jak68 your an imbecile.

      #4.9 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:49 PM EST
      leonidasDeleted
      Reply
      Edelweiss

      What terrible news.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:07 AM EST
      The Incredulous One

      Well, KF, I mostly agree with you on this one. It's clear that Musharaf will take a big chunk of blame. The Pakistani govt has not brought any charges against anyone in the previous attempt in Karachi where 140 were killed, so the suspicion against him is strong. But Pakistan is not really in a position to do forensic analysis for a situation like that. As a result Benazir Bhutto had asked the international community for help which Musharaf declined or ignored. She had told Musharaff which elements of the establishment and intelligence were involved and he blew it off. Of course, Musharaf himself and other ministers have been threatened before and attempts on his life have been made before. Suspicions, and rumors fly, an right now fires are burning in various cities,. No one's got a clue how this will pan out, and I think we all better keep our fingers crossed.

      • 5 votes
      Reply#6 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:52 AM EST
      firsty

      ugh. not a good day, waking up to this news. thanks for the overview, killfile. this event is going to resonate quite significantly.

      • 5 votes
      Reply#7 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:57 AM EST
      Brandon Kiser

      Civil war is the worst possible affliction Pakistan could face, and now it appears inevitable.

      Now we can only hope that several events don't happen:

      1. The nukes fall into the wrong hands.
      2. India doesn't seize the opportunity and do God knows what.
      3. Just about anything else.

      Watching the news right now, I see at least a miniature civil war in front of the hospital where Bhutto died.

      This definitely is on the verge of all out disaster, and God forbid, it turn out anything like WWI.

      • 4 votes
      Reply#8 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:59 AM EST
      Killfile

      If it comes to Civil War in Pakistan the United States is going to have some hard decisions on its hands. Rolling into Pakistan to secure weapons stocks is not going to go over well but Pakistan is never going to "safe" its weapons on its own. The safeguards are going to ensure that whomever ends up with the launch systems can use the weapons and I'd bet dollars to donuts that those systems aren't designed to disable the weapons on a lark.

      In short, the outcome of any such civil war will determine who gets the nukes and the US and India are both going to have a vested interest in making sure that whomever that turns out to be is a friend.

      And then, of course, India could decide that all bets are off and just roll in amidst all the chaos.

      Bush is in Crawford for the holidays, but I bet the situation room is hopping right about now. The Pentagon should be drawing up some serious contingency plans but with US forces stretched thin in Iraq, we're pretty well limited to air-strikes and special forces for anything we want to accomplish.

      Ya never know though, maybe we'll get lucky and things will quiet down. Stranger things have happened.

      • 6 votes
      #8.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:28 AM EST
      Mridul Chadha

      India doesn't seize the opportunity and do God knows what.

      What makes you think that India would 'do God knows what'.

      • 5 votes
      #8.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:28 AM EST
      Brandon Kiser

      Killfile:
      I don't know, there are so many ways this thing can go, I don't know what to think.

      Mridul Chadha:

      What makes you think that India would 'do God knows what'.

      Pakistan and India have been going at it for years and it is still volatile.

      • 3 votes
      #8.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:03 PM EST
      Mridul Chadha

      Yes the situation is volatile but why do you think India would take an aggressive step in this situation.

      • 8 votes
      #8.4 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:10 PM EST
      ShaunV

      The question is, how did a gun-toting suicide bomber get close to her in those circumstances?

      Good question.

      An inside job, maybe?

      -------------

      BTW: This should go below laughman's comment,. Arrrrgh!

      • 2 votes
      #8.5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:34 PM EST
      Brandon Kiser

      Yes the situation is volatile but why do you think India would take an aggressive step in this situation.

      I never said they would, but that we should hope they don't.

      • 1 vote
      #8.6 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:41 PM EST
      Mridul Chadha

      Yes you never said that, there isn't any reason for India or for that matter anybody to do anything to Pakistan now. There is enough chaos for a civil war which, in my opinion, is inevitable. I think there would be more attacks on political leaders - Nawaz Sharif & maybe Imran Khan too.

      but that we should hope they don't.

      Had India ever wanted that it would have done that in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, 1999, or 2001 - in each case it was Pakistan who initiated the war & lost every single time (except in 2001, when there wasn't any actual war).

      • 9 votes
      #8.7 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:51 PM EST
      Dennis P. McCannDeleted
      Mridul Chadha

      That would be the right time to go in & get the nukes since Pakistan won't allow anyone to touch them now. But it should involve a multi-national special force, i don't know if India would like to be a part of it. I'm only worried about the nukes now, as far as the elections & the stability of Pakistan as a state is concerned, it is now immaterial to think about these things. Civil war seems inevitable.

      • 4 votes
      #8.9 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:12 PM EST
      Bill Harrison

      The problem is that Pakistan's nukes are thought not to be even one-point safe and no one really knows where they are.

      • 1 vote
      #8.10 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:30 PM EST
      Killfile

      Bill, to clarify for those a little less well versed in nuclear weapons terminology -- "one point safe" means the safe mechanism is actually part of the bomb and is necessary to make it go off. An example might be a modification of the spark gaps which time the precise detonation signals necessary to make a plutonium bomb explode. This component can be scrambled such that it requires a code to detonate properly.

      Pakistan's bombs are likely not equipped with such devices and, as such, whatever safeguards are there can be removed by someone with sufficient time and access to the bombs.

      In short, Pakistan's bombs could be stolen and re-appropriated by motivated individuals. "one point safe" bombs would require significant re-engineering of the entire device in order to accomplish the same thing.

      • 5 votes
      #8.11 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 1:38 PM EST
      Ben Josephs

      Yes the situation is volatile but why do you think India would take an aggressive step in this situation.

      Chaos provides the perfect opportunity to assert dominance, so an aggressive action from India is certainly a possibility.

        #8.12 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:37 PM EST
        Mridul Chadha

        I don't think so. India got many chance in the past to 'assert its dominance' over Pakistan. India has never been the aggressor, Pakistan has attacked India 4 times in the past which has resulted in war while India has never attacked Pakistan. During the 1999 Kargil War it was Pakistan which violated the Shimla agreement & crossed into the Indian side of Line of Control, while defending its territory not even a single Indian soldier crossed the Line of Control because of direct orders to the Indian Army from the the then Indian Prime Minister Mr. Vajpayee. So i don't see India doing anything (let alone something aggressive).

        • 8 votes
        #8.13 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 10:51 PM EST
        Ben Josephs

        Understood. I'm not much of an authority on the two countries relations and certainly wasn't inferring that India would do something aggressive in this situation.

        • 1 vote
        #8.14 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:00 PM EST
        Reply
        bluecollarbytes

        Count on the conspiracy-fans to conjure up the "real story" before the evidence even comes in. Bhutto had many enemies, including the radical Islamists of Pakistan. But it matters not to those with endless theories on the what, who, why, and when of "world war three".

        • 4 votes
        Reply#9 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:49 AM EST
        Killfile

        I wouldn't characterize this as a "conspiracy theory." I certainly haven't come down one way or the other on who killed Bhutto. All I've pointed out is that there is enough suspicion about Musharraf already to foment some very bad things in Pakistan following this assassination.

        Those bad things should concern the United States. We should be thinking about them and preparing for them.

        Was it actually Musharraf? We'll probably never know, the gunner was also a bomber after all, and he's not talking.

        In the end it's not what happened that matters, it's the perception of what happened. Musharraf has a hell of a perception to fight against and if he looses that fight it's going to get very ugly in Pakistan.

        • 6 votes
        #9.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:55 AM EST
        The Incredulous One

        KF, #8.11,

        Bill, to clarify for those a little less well versed in nuclear weapons terminology -- "one point safe" means the safe mechanism is actually part of the bomb and is necessary to make it go off.

        No, this is incorrect. One-point-safe means simply that if it takes one point i.e. one place in the explosive chain that could result in a detonation of the device, that there is a low probability that the nuclear energy yield will be greater than the equivalent energy from a certain amount of TNT. By definition, the probability is less than one per million, and the amount is 4 pounds. So any method that provides less than one in a million probability that the resulting explosion (set off at any one point that could detonate a bomb) will yield more than 4 pounds of TNT is called one point safe. Some methods are expected to be, or have been demonstrated to be better than others.

        • 3 votes
        #9.2 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:06 AM EST
        Killfile

        Sorrt TIO, you're right -- that was the definition for a Permissive Action Link (PAL) also a handy widget in a bomb but not what Bill was talking about.

        • 2 votes
        #9.3 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:46 AM EST
        The Incredulous One

        no problem, KF.

        • 2 votes
        #9.4 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:38 AM EST
        Killfile

        Sorrt TIO, you're right

        Hmmm. Turns out the "T" and "Y" keys are next to each other. Hell of an unlikely typo though.

        • 1 vote
        #9.5 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:00 AM EST
        The Incredulous One

        I didn't even noticw.

          #9.6 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:41 PM EST
          Reply
          Whyren

          There is a report that Al Qaeda is claiming responsibility.

          • 5 votes
          Reply#10 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:00 PM EST
          Killfile

          I remain shocked that Al Qaeda didn't claim responsibility for Hurricane Katrina. Lots of groups claim responsibility for stuff like this and al Qaeda has almost become a brand-name at this point.

          Not to detract from the announcement -- if it turns out A.Q. was involved than this could really mix things up -- but we'll probably see a lot of groups claim this one.

          • 5 votes
          #10.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:12 PM EST
          Laughman

          Al Qaeda or some similar group may well have been involved, (suicide bomber would tend to point in this direction), but it should hardly come as a surprise that such groups would target Benazir Bhutto.

          The question is, how did a gun-toting suicide bomber get close to her in those circumstances?

          Musharraf didn't have to plot anything. All it took was a few security people looking away at the right time.

          As always in these situations, ask yourself: Cui bono?

          • 4 votes
          #10.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:29 PM EST
          Bill Harrison

          I remain shocked that Al Qaeda didn't claim responsibility for Hurricane Katrina.

          Bush already had that one locked up ;>o

          Speaking of which, I'm surprised not to see an article or seed yet on how the president might be blamed for the assassination of Pinky Bhutto. Were any Texans known to be in Rawalpindi at the time? What about Halliburton executives?

          • 3 votes
          #10.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:41 PM EST
          rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
          ZanshinPost

          Not Texas but ...

          "Our foreign policy has relied on her presence as a stabilizing force. She had a big public following . . . Without her, we will have to regroup. It complicates life for the American government." -- Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who is in Pakistan and was scheduled to meet Benazir Bhutto tonight

          From Washington Post article

          • 2 votes
          #10.5 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:39 PM EST
          Edelweiss

          Good one, Zanshin. :-)

            #10.6 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 7:12 AM EST
            Whyren

            Pakistan Intelligence is now saying they have evidence of an Al-Qaeda link.

              #10.7 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:04 PM EST
              Bill Harrison

              That's the same guy that Ms. Bhutto said was part of a group targeting her in a discussion she had with Arnaud de Borchgrave. Now the Pakistani Interior Ministry is saying she was killed by a fractured skull which resulted from her hitting her head on a lever when trying to duck back inside her vehicle and not gunshot wounds as previously reported.

                #10.8 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:20 PM EST
                Reply
                Mark The Muse

                Killfile,
                This article should have been posted under opinion not news.

                • 2 votes
                Reply#11 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:13 PM EST
                Killfile

                It's a little of both but I take your point. Switching.

                • 5 votes
                #11.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:19 PM EST
                Reply
                oldfogey

                We'll stay out of it.

                Will we? Have we? I guess once things are put in motion we don't have to dirty our hands any longer. Who in our part of the world gains by Benazir's death? Who supports Musharraf beyond reason? So, you want to say we had no input! Why not? Damned if you do and damned if you don't. Pakistan is a violent place.

                Sorry, just venting my grief.

                • 12 votes
                Reply#12 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:17 PM EST
                Bill Harrison

                Settle down, OF, you're becoming a bit incoherent. Don't let your BDD cloud your mind at a time like this.

                • 5 votes
                #12.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:24 PM EST
                Mark The Muse

                oldfogey,

                Are you going to write an article today. I think I'm going thru oldfogey withdrawals. :-)

                • 3 votes
                #12.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:29 PM EST
                oldfogey

                Thanks for your concern, fellows. Bill I tend to get that way when overloaded with emotion. Mark, I was just about to write an ode to the one I love and then this Bhutto thing threw me for a loop. Keep watching, I am sure something will come pouring out soon.

                • 1 vote
                #12.3 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:49 PM EST
                I SPY

                Well I support your outburst OF. The storey of Pak. is a long storey of proxy wars and betrayal. I too find it inconceivable that people can look at this with some sort of Red White and Blue telescopic vision. How quickly people forget these days. Bhutto good friend of the Bin-Ladens, and killed her own brother a democratically elected representative, would have been wanted in Switzerland for Money Laundering and corruption. What have the US given Pak. A gun problem, a Drug problem, bombs, border disputes, 1965, the US betrayed Pak and East Pak became Bangladesh, They gave them the Mujahadeen, (Al-Qaeda) and then betrayed them. They gave them Nukes via AQ Khan, The war in Baluchistan, Kashmir, Afghanistan and the NW Frontier,

                Oh yeah, and a finger puppet named Bhutto AKA Condi Rice's middle right finger.

                • 3 votes
                #12.4 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 7:46 AM EST
                Reply
                Redruby

                Good article, killfile. Precarious times. Doesn't seem that their nukes could be safe with this instability. I'm curious to see Washington's reaction. I can't imagine how Musharraf can continue with any sense of legitimacy at this point. Aren't their elections in a week or two? What an abysmal situation.

                • 4 votes
                Reply#13 - Thu Dec 27, 2007 2:46 PM EST
                leonidasDeleted
                leonidasDeleted
                Partisan Hack

                Let's hope for a rational conclusion to this incident, but my fear is that Benazir Bhutto's assassination may be not unlike the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in the Balkans that acted as a trigger for the events that erupted into World War I. We have relatively weak and inept leadership around the world and there is little to stop us from tipping into catastrophic events. I pray for less than that, but we need to be wary about the realistic possibility of the worst.

                • 1 vote
                Reply#16 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:27 AM EST
                rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                Reply
                I SPY

                Yeah right Why would Musharref need to. Get real yanks, this hurts you, 100$ a barrel oil, 500 points off the NYSE, and you will never get your hands on that gas now. Your little corrupt lacky has been killed and rightly so, She was an incredibly disruptive influence on Pakistan and hundreds have been killed since her return. She should have been in prison anyway.

                So rug up you can look forward to energy shortages this year. Just watch the way the American stock markets fall in response to this, worse than ENRON. LOL when will give up trying to get that pipeline deal.

                The big winner out of this is the Pak military. Lets hope Musharref keeps control of those nukes. If you live in Israel or have relatives there, maybe this would be a good time to have them come and stay for a while, like a long while.

                • 3 votes
                #17 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:23 AM EST
                The Incredulous One

                I SPY, you never cease to entertain. More fun than a barrel of monkeys, maybe even a coupla barrels.

                • 3 votes
                #17.1 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:06 AM EST
                Robert Blevins - AB of Seattle

                I have to object to at least a portion of "I Spy's" comments. Not the ones about Enron, the NYSE, or the price of oil.

                The comments about moving people out of Israel because of a possible threat from Pakistan seem a bit much. Trust me, Israel is no pushover, and they can more than hold their own against any outside threats.

                My opinion on Bhutto is that she should have stayed in England. My reason is because her motivation for returning to Pakistan was not to 'return in triumph' and free the country. While she was in England, she had a lot of visitors to her apartment. These people were often entertained by Bhutto while she would send her children to the back bedroom. Mostly, the visitors tried to talk her into returning to Pakistan. The reason they were there was to try for a place in any future Bhutto government.

                In the two months or so since Bhutto's return, all she REALLY accomplished was to get hundreds of her countrymen blown up...and herself killed. I don't think she's a heroine. I think she just wanted back in power. When it quickly got to a point where she needed convoys of bulletproof cars and cell phone jammers just to move around, maybe she should have taken the hint.

                In any event, all she brought to the country in her carry-ons was death, misery, and discord.

                • 2 votes
                #17.2 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:15 AM EST
                I SPY

                The comments about moving people out of Israel because of a possible threat from Pakistan seem a bit much. Trust me, Israel is no pushover

                Someone might try to use it as an excuse, ie, blame Pakistan for an attack.

                As for Bhutto the cow killed her own brother, I dont feel sorry for her, not one bit.

                  #17.3 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:38 AM EST
                  The Incredulous One

                  As for Bhutto the cow killed her own brother, I dont feel sorry for her, not one bit.

                  she was no angel, but no one accused her of that, afaik. They said her husband did it, but no charges were brought. You have a link, or you just tawkin?

                  • 2 votes
                  #17.4 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:35 AM EST
                  I SPY

                  A link, Oh if its not on the intaweb it cant be true. Ok then at the very least she was an accessory after the fact. Care to explain how it got covered up without her say so?

                    #17.5 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:34 AM EST
                    Aunk (The Cultural Health Guy)

                    Hetep and Respect I spy, I heard this morning on WBAI that Bhutto, stole more then a billion dollars in her last stay in the country and left 50% of the people illiterate. It was also pointed out that more or less, the same small group of Western approved families, have been robing the country for the last 60 years.

                    Do you think that because she was backed by Bush, some of her people considered her a Cultural Traitor and that is why she was killed.

                    • 2 votes
                    #17.6 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:30 AM EST
                    I SPY

                    No Pak is like pre columbian America. Tribal. She comes from an elite's family groomed by the British when there was an East and West Pakistan, She would poll about five percent of the vote. She has only her local tribe supporting her. This is why Shariff and Bhutto where going to boycott the election, because they knew they would lose, in fact they would not even have enough votes to win a seat. They are both political nothings. Bhutto was bad for Pakistan, Her father was Hanged, probably wrongfully, and she embarked on a political career for revenge. Not the sort of thing you want a democratically elected leader to have as a core policy.

                    She was just another lacky of the west, in fact Condi's finger puppet. The Pak's. will never evert forgive the US for abandoning the Mujahadeen, as well as many other betrayals, and she was seen as pretender to the Islamic state. Pakistan Zinzibad, was not in her rhetoric.

                    • 1 vote
                    #17.7 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:30 PM EST
                    leonidasDeleted
                    Bill Harrison

                    Results from the last round of Pakistani parliamentary elections (minor parties omitted):

                    % of popular vote - Seats

                    Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) 25.7% 126 seats

                    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 25.8% 81 seats

                    Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (Religious party coalition)
                    Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (Islamic Assembly)
                    Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Assembly of Islamic Clergy)
                    Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (Assembly of Pakistani Clergy)
                    Tehrik-e-Islami (Movement for Islam)
                    11.3% 63 seats Have not done well in local elections recently

                    Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif) 9.4% 19 seats

                    I guess support for Pinky's PPP has really fallen off uh, I SPY?

                    • 2 votes
                    #17.9 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:30 PM EST
                    rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                    I SPY

                    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 25.8% 81 seats

                    That was before Bhutto and Shariff returned to the scene. The two of them on a joint ticket polled under 6% 1 seat. That's one seat between them. Vote percentage does not always = seats. You can poll 51% of the primary vote and not win a single seat.

                    • 2 votes
                    #17.11 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 3:10 PM EST
                    Bill Harrison

                    That assertion doesn't square with this poll which was admittedly taken before their return but is as far off from your assertion as day is night. I presume you have some citation to buttress your claims?

                    • 1 vote
                    #17.12 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 5:15 PM EST
                    leonidasDeleted
                    Forest Browne

                    Wow Bill you have minions...what next? Perhaps they should defend themselves.

                    Forest

                    • 1 vote
                    #17.14 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 7:23 PM EST
                    rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                    leonidasDeleted
                    Forest Browne

                    Look the minions speak in simple sylables for all Pubs to understand. Good luck all.

                    • 1 vote
                    #17.17 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:57 PM EST
                    leonidasDeleted
                    krishna-167929

                    The comments about moving people out of Israel because of a possible threat from Pakistan seem a bit much. Trust me, Israel is no pushover, and they can more than hold their own against any outside threats.

                    I Spy is confused. Its Iran's job to destroy the kufr in Israel-- Pakistan is supposed to focus on destroying the kufr in India. See?

                    • 3 votes
                    #17.19 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:25 PM EST
                    The Incredulous One

                    I SPY #17.5

                    A link, Oh if its not on the intaweb it cant be true. Ok then at the very least she was an accessory after the fact. Care to explain how it got covered up without her say so?

                    not even. I mean a reference, a citation, something other than your mere assertion. You said BB had her brother killed. When I said (#17.4)

                    she was no angel, but no one accused her of that, afaik. They said her husband did it, but no charges were brought. You have a link, or you just tawkin?

                    you say "at the very least she was an accessory after the fact." So, did she have her brother killed or not? Yes? You have a reference?

                    Care to explain how it got covered up without her say so?

                    they must have uncovered it just enough so we can talk about it.

                    • 3 votes
                    #17.20 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:28 PM EST
                    I SPY

                    Reference to her own family.

                    they must have uncovered it just enough so we can talk about it.

                    After she was expelled from the country.

                    @ Bill Harrison. What are you on about quoting from an Alien source about inter Tribal Pak politics. Do you have any understanding of the Pak political process? Do you know how a parlimentary democracy works?:
                    The first Question you should ask is Who is Benazir Bhutto. The answer is she is the Fuedal overlord of Larkarna, a sparsely populated area of rural Cind.

                    Now let me explanify this for you in a way even an American can understand.

                    If America was still living before the first fleet ran aground at Plymoth you would have a number of Tribes. So you send a representative to all the tribes within the area now claimed to be the USA. You tell them, The is this person called Bhutto from some other tribe. She has been living outside the country with the enemy for many years. Now who are you going to vote for.? Your tribal chief of this stranger Bhutto.?

                    Now the wild card in these jurga's are the Punjabi's. They came to Pakistan during the Partition. Some went to East Pak, but most went to West Pak. They are a bit like Israeli's. They went their to create a Muslim Homeland. Now many of these people are the subject of a lot of interracial tension. For example, The Bugti Baluchs, have been killing them for starting settlements in Baluchistan for some time now, Think of it like Hamas in the Gaza strip. The main difference between the Punjabi's and the Israeli's is that the Punjabi's were initially welcomed and have not Violated any international laws or conventions. Thats not to say that the fighting is not as fierce. Another difficulty is that Pak has no western border. So how do you conduct a poll in a country where there is state mandated boundaries??

                    • 3 votes
                    #17.21 - Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:48 AM EST
                    rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                    rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                    Bill Harrison

                    Anyone who thinks that Charlie Wilson trafficked in nuclear arms and started Enron, not to mention backslapping the Vine's resident anti-Semite is not to be trusted to tell time except maybe twice each day.

                    • 2 votes
                    #17.24 - Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:10 PM EST
                    I SPY

                    "Spy is confused. Its Iran's job to destroy the kufr in Israel-- Pakistan is supposed to focus on destroying the kufr in India. See? "

                    Putting words into my mouth is a typical tactic of this tyope, I said Pak would be blamed, not attack Israel. Big difference. I seer you needed two bites of that Cherry Rob from oakland, whats a matter scared someone might reveal something that is true??

                    @ Bill Harrison I am still waiting for your response to my question about Masood. Was that one too hard for you billy boy. It is a well known fact the Wilson was involved in the precursor to ENRON. Nice try Billy boy. Now you are resorting to out right lies. So are you going to answer that Q about Masood or is that a bit to close to the truth for you??

                    backslapping the Vine's resident anti-Semite LMAO, why dont you just say Nah nah nah nah your wrong Im right Billy boy.

                      #17.25 - Sun Dec 30, 2007 1:17 PM EST
                      leonidasDeleted
                      krishna-167929

                      I SPY, are you always this "charming"?

                      Most of his comments on NV are pretty inflammatory. Unless people in the discussion stop him, he can create some real negativity. I'm not sure if its better to confront him outright-- or just ignore him. Ideas anyone?

                      • 2 votes
                      #17.27 - Sun Dec 30, 2007 6:02 PM EST
                      Dennis P. McCannDeleted
                      rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                      Reply
                      Barry Rutherford

                      I was indeed very shocked and upset when I heard this morning. Then again I was equally upset when both Indira Gandhi and then later her son who came to power in India were assassinated

                      • 2 votes
                      Reply#18 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:06 AM EST
                      krishna-167929

                      What happens next will shape the future of Pakistani politics and the wider Middle East for years to come. If the United States' strongest regional ally slips into a state of political chaos - or worse: civil war - the results could span decades and reshape the Middle East

                      Perhaps there are also wider implications-- for Europe as well. Here is a interesting analysis-- Bhutto Killing Puts EuroLeaders On Notice: Time to Choose

                      • 2 votes
                      Reply#19 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:09 PM EST
                      rob from oakland, ca.Deleted
                      krishna-167929

                      Krishna-

                      Very worthwhile link. I recommend it. Thanks!

                      You're welcome. I was quite surprised when I read it. The author [Scott Ott] is a fairly well known satirist-- some of his stuff is very funny. But--Ive never see him do a serious piece before. Turns out he's also good at serious writing.

                      • 1 vote
                      #19.2 - Wed Jan 2, 2008 1:28 AM EST
                      Reply
                      pseudonihilist

                      It takes but reading a third of this thread to realize "Jeez, I don't want to be here." Let the dust settle, and if it cannot, well then.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#20 - Fri Dec 28, 2007 8:51 PM EST
                      Robert Blevins - AB of Seattle

                      Have any of you tried to research the Bhutto/Zardari history in Pakistan? I did it for two weeks before writing an article about it. Along the way I went through a fair amount of Motrin. It's like wading through mud up to your waist.

                      I send my sympathies to the family about BB's assassination, but like many others, I don't feel sorry for her.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#21 - Tue Jan 1, 2008 10:21 PM EST
                      leonidasDeleted
                      Reply
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