Turning Virginia Blue -- DNC Keynote Speaker Mark Warner On Coming Battle In Virginia

Perhaps it will also springboard the Governor into the White House when Senator Obama can no longer serve.

From your lips to God's ears.

I wonder about the springboard. Warner had the opportunity this go-around, and he even considered it.

Then, he backed out. Claimed that he didn't want to put his family in the spotlight of a presidential campaign.

If he backed out then, when he was young, vibrant, and could deliver VA easily, what will happen in 8 years?

Tim Kaine proposed an increase in gas tax to appease the northern traffic congestion

I don't believe this to be true. From the Fredericksburg paper

His proposal requires increasing the sales tax on cars, boosting the annual vehicle registration fee, increasing a tax on home sales and applying an extra sales tax in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
Lawmakers will take up the proposal in a special session Kaine is calling June 23.
But House Republicans have already rejected the plan, saying a recession is no time to raise taxes.

Is what he proposed and what the repubs rejected. The article then goes on to say

He chose not to propose a statewide increase in the gas tax, he said, because gas is a necessity of life for many people.

I was a Virginia Republican when you could fit all of them in a three seat barbershop.

Also known as until Brown v Board started to be enforced and desegregation took hold in VA.

My suggestion is for Washington, DC to annex northern virginia since that is the type of democrat controlled government they so desire.

Believe me Alexandria city, and Fairfax, Loudoun, Arlington, and Prince William counties would gladly form our own state and jettison the rest of VA. We send substantially more of our taxes out of the region than the state returns; so, we could cut our taxes and increase our services. The southern and SW parts of the state would just have to make due with smaller welfare checks and crappier schools. The crappier schools shouldn't be much of an issue since most of the people in those parts of the state don't have jobs that really require a high school education. (Richmond area and Norfolk Va Beach area you are welcome to come along with N Va too and my comments don't apply to you).

W.K.

I agree with most of this analysis as a transplanted Harrisonburger now living behind the Iron Curtain in Arlington with Commissar Jim Moran for my Congressman. I would also agree that Kaine (who isn't nearly as popular as Warner) isn't going to help Barry all that much for the reasons you illustrate. Obama's hopes in the Old Dominion depend on two things: 1) Very high black turnout. 2) Getting all of those new people they've registered to the polls.

The crappier schools shouldn't be much of an issue since most of the people in those parts of the state don't have jobs that really require a high school education. (Richmond area and Norfolk Va Beach area you are welcome to come along with N Va too and my comments don't apply to you).

Whoa.. whoa...
WTF dude? Have you forgotten Roanoke? Blacksburg(Virginia Tech) ? Charlottesville? How about Lebanon, in which CGI, one of the largest independent IT firms in the world, which also runs the majority(over 54%) of the gov'ts financial software, is located, and Northrop Grumman? I live here in SWVA(actually work at CGI, in Lebanon, of which Mark Warner spoke of). I have a college degree. So yeah, I'm a touch defensive.

BA, this area (NoVA) is full of people like this who really have no earthly idea there's another Virginia outside this paved over "paradise". Many have not only not traveled outside the Beltway much (okay maybe to Fauquier or Warren Co. for some wine-tasting) but they don't even know the state's geography. You say Martinsville or Danville or Farmville to these people and you may as well be talking about the geography of the moon.

the schools i was reffering too were k - 12.

you could give me the nicest house in blacksburg or roanoke and 100k a year and i still wouldn't want to live in blacksburg or roanoke. if i was forced to live there i would send my kids to private school. as far as danville and farmville go, i wouldn't want to live (actually it would just be existing) there if you gave me a million dollars and the nicest house there.

cgi isn't exactly located in lebanon, they are a canadian company that has an office in lebanon, i bet there are more former ams (bought by cgi) employees working for cgi in northern va than in lebanon by a long shot. i also bet there are more grummites in my building than work in lebanon. sure there are some good jobs in that part and other parts of the state, but that is the exception not the rule. in fact we used to look at "onshoring" datacenter operations to the balcksburg area, better than india and still cheap, just not as cheap.

and yes the k - 12 schools are better in northern va. and yes the admission standards for acceptance to college are reduced for students that don't come from northern va and yes for every dollar of tax paid in northern va only 66 cents are returned to northern va by the state. so, yes if northern va tax dollars weren't subsidizing southern and sw va the schools would be crappier there.

so yes when people from the subsidized part of the state say that northern va should not be part of the state we are more than willing to accept their offer.

dc_123

If you really believe that stuff than I truly feel sorry for you and think you should try to get out more. Parts of SW and south-side VA may have some problems, but we hardly have poor schools or roads, and there are plenty of good jobs. I guess you forgot that VA Tech happens to be located in SW VA. I get the feeling from your ramblings that you have little clue about this area.

Stupid comment about the crappy schools aside, dc_123's main point does hold: Northern Virginia is the economic engine for the rest of the state.

Bill Harrison, if you hate living behind the "Iron Curtain" (aka Arlington), why do you stay? Why not go back to Harrisonburg? Or do you grudgingly accept the crappy traffic to get the job and the school districts?

Will Obama do well in SWVA? Outside of Christiansburg/Blacksburg, I doubt it. Then again, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, and Loudoun Counties (along with Alexandria, Fairfax City, Falls Church, Manassas, and Manassas Park) comprise more than a quarter of the residents of the state of Virginia (2007 estimates: 2,082,915 out of 7,712,091 or 27%). Source (the Excel spreadsheet found there). Virginia's Ninth District's 2000 census data states it has 643,514 residents and the Sixth District has 643,504(*). In short, the population density of Northern Virginia and its Democratic bend can counteract the the south and western part of the state.

If you add in Richmond as a traditional Democratic stronghold in Virginia, it looks possible (not a guarantee by any shot) that Virginia could go blue this year.

Survey USA poll of Virginia. Overall, it's a dead heat (McCain 48, Obama 47, MOE 3.9). Obama leads 13 in SE Virginia (which surprises me, given Newport News and the Tidewater area (for non-Virginians: Newport News is one of the largest, if not the largest, US Naval shipyards in the world)) and 11 in NE Virginia. McCain leads 23 in the Shenadoah Valley and by 5 in Central VA.

It's going to be tight.

--------

(*) Yes, I realize I used the 2007 provisional estimates for Northern Virginia and the official 2000 census tally for the 6th and 9th districts. It's late and I did not feel like adding up all of the data points to do a true apples-to-apples comparison. My apologies, but I don't feel that it detracts too much from my point.

Stupid comment about the crappy schools aside

compare the sat scores by county and get back to me. why do va college admissions officers have to lower the standards for admission to the state colleges for students outside of northern va if the schools are so good in say roanoke? fairfax county is considered to be one of the 5 best school districts in the country. roanoke county is ranked where?

e_nygma

Your survey numbers are still fairly accurate the ninth has just over 648,000 now, with just over 200,000 registered voters.

BTW I've got nothing against NOVA I like most everything there except the roads. I just got offended at the comments about SW because I do live in the ninth. I was surprised to see a fellow Virginian so hostile toward this area, when most people I know take great pride in the whole state.

Geographical diversity of the state (it IS the Virginia college system, after all)? Taking into account the different economic conditions of different part of the state?

For the record, there is a high correlation between affluence of the test taker and higher scores on the SAT (thank you prep classes and other resources).

Yes, Fairfax County has one of the top school districts in the country. It is also one of the wealthiest counties in the country. Shockingly enough, those two go hand in hand.

AmusedinVa,

Thanks for the info. I figured the numbers probably would hold up to be reasonable.

I am a Virginian, but I was born in Northern Virginia. So, I know the road situation like the back of my hand (think of it like a Zen exercise in applied meditation (must not go f-ing nuts, must not go f-ing nuts)).

Not all of us "up north" agree with the sentiments mentioned here about those "down south." To be honest, if I could conjure up a ton of cash, I would create a high speed rail network that would crisscross the state (follow 81, 29, and 95 in a N/S fashion, and 66, 64, and SR-58 in a E/W fashion) so that we could link the talent across the entire state. Along with the broadband connection penetration that Warner mentioned, you would have a true 21st century workforce.

-----

By the way, when I was born, all that was around where I lived was my neighborhood, our sister neighborhood, and horse and cow farms in most directions. People asked why my parents (transplants from California) moved out to the sticks.

The house I grew up in? It is three miles from Tysons' Corner.

And no, I'm not that old. If you could bring the infrastructure to the 6th and 9th districts, I think they would blossom nicely. That would mean a fair amount of change, for better and for worse.

you could give me the nicest house in blacksburg or roanoke and 100k a year and i still wouldn't want to live in blacksburg or roanoke.

Despite our "crappy" schools, we at least know that the names of towns/cities should be capitalized.

Courts,

Responding to trolls by playing grammar cop? Come now, I know you can do better. :D

Of course, but it is 1:15 am, my friend.

e_nygma

Well since I'm in Montgomery County we do have quite a bit more infrastructure than far SW. Our main economy is still manufacturing based though and broadband could be faster but is good here. I'm on 3 mb dsl right now and could get 5mb cable. Can't wait for Verizon to get FIOS into the area.

I agree completely with you on the rail idea. I've mentioned high speed passenger trains to our representatives in the state House and Senate. As a matter of fact I'll be seeing them again Thursday morning, so I'll have to get an update on what's going on in Richmond.
I'm curious now about the school rankings I'll have to see where Roanoke County does rate. I'm sure it will be lower than Roanoke city.

Amused,

The biggest problem I can see with the high speed commuter lines is that either they have to be brand new tracks (lots of fun with eminent domain and property owner fights (look up the Inter-County Connector in Maryland sometime)), or you have to use the existing tracks and deal with CSX and other freight handlers getting priority right of way.

e_nygma

They would almost have to be new tracks. What I had been discussing with people was actually building a monorail type system either in the existing median area on I 81 or paralleling the existing NS lines because the land already either belongs to the state or NS in those instances. There has been discussion as well of the state contracting Amtrak to run passenger service from Bristol to Richmond.

I don't know if you've seen about the inter-model freight yard that is going to be built in Elliston yet. The state is doing a joint expansion of the rail system with NS and the federal government on the existing rail line paralleling I 81 now to take heavy trucks off 81 onto rail. I'm not sure how far they still run but there are also some existing tracks that are out of service but could be used again for passenger trains through much of the ninth. They quit doing it a couple of years ago but NS was running an old steam locomotive from Roanoke to Bristol as a tourist attraction, and it was primarily using the secondary rails that don't carry freight.

Either way we went with both of those options would still be cheaper, faster to build, and environmentally less destructive than building new roads. I guess the biggest question is how many people would actually use it if we build one.

I'm totally for anything that takes 18 wheelers off of I-81.

As for people using it, if it is fast and reasonably priced, I think it will be adopted quickly. A high-speed connection between Blacksburg and Washington, DC would do wonders for Tech students (I would want a UVA express as well :D).

Being a Cavalier fan I'll be the first to hop on board that express. That being said now I'll be chastised by my local friends for not being a Hokie.

I know I'd be more likely to visit DC and Richmond more if I could avoid the drive by using rail service. I'm wondering now how much of the old rail infrastructure is still left in the eastern areas of the state. It might not be as expensive as some have thought to implement statewide train service if the tracks still exist.

I believe as VA continues to transition into a high tech economy from traditional agriculture and manufacturing we'll start seeing a lot of positive changes. In his speech Warner hinted at the things that the state has already accomplished and at a lot of what's to come. Maybe something that's been overlooked by many of us though is the kind of invisible rift between NOVA and the SW parts of the state. Might be worthy of some focus on that to help the state as a whole. With that said I'll zip over a friends request to you.

I think you need to take a closer look at Killfile's image. There aren't many, but there are some Hoos down your way.

I completely agree that a high speed, in-state rail link would help heal the rift: job creation to build, run, and maintain the lines; redistribution of population, based around public transportation; wealth transfer to parts of the state that desperately need it (it's been awhile, but I suspect Dungannon isn't much better than when I went down on that mission trip so many years ago); and affordable housing without giving up the possibility of jobs up outside DC. Heck, if you had that kind of infrastructure, I bet dollars to donuts more firms like CGI would pop up all over the state.

Zip received and accepted.

I resent the implication that he will "deliver" Virginia to the Democrats, as though we were nothing more than a cattle car full of livestock.

It wasn't implied, you erroneously inferred it.

Governor Warner plans to stand the populist record of the Democratic Party in opposition to these hostile perceptions. We've shown we can govern, he reminded the delegation – a reference to his own administration's success and approval ratings - and that is the message that Barack Obama is bringing as well. Warner spoke specifically about the issues of opportunity that will likely dominate his keynote address to the Democratic National Convention Tuesday night: jobs, education, and alternative energy – issues that resonate well with Virginia's rural voters.

How dare he try to woo voters based on the legislative record of the Democratic party in VA.

No I did not erroneously infer it, and you are correct that it was not implied; to quote from the article:

"For Warner especially, the pressure is well and truly on. Besides giving the biggest speech of his life tonight, the Democratic Party is also relying on him to deliver Virginia and consequently the White House."

so where does the part of about nothing more than a cattle car of livestock come from? it seems to me that the article says that the strategy for virginia is to rely on warner to convince/deliver the voters. it doesn't say or imply that warner can just give the word/his endorsement and the voters of virginia will follow him. it says warner is going to get the job done by presenting the case, based on past example, that the democrats can effectively govern in the manner that virginians want and in a manner that is good for virginia.

Okay, let's just go ahead and parse this into minutiae. The simple statement of fact is that the article says that Mark Warner is expected to deliver Virginia to the Democrats. One obvious interpretation of that statement is that Virginia is considered to be a single deliverable quanitity, such as a cattle car of livestock, rather than millions of individuals. My opinion of that interpretation is that I resent it.

What next, Mr. William Jefferson Clinton; do we go to the dictionary and define the meaning of "is" along with all of the other words used in this exchange?

One obvious interpretation of that statement is that Virginia is considered to be a single deliverable quanitity

Virginia is. It will be delivered to either the repubs or the dems. Nowehre does the article imply that the voters can be taken for granted or will react with a herd metallity based of the direction of the soon to be senator.

Ike did it with limited success, yes that is correct. Lincoln also delivered the emancipation proclamation. However things have in both parties, about 180 degrees. Funny how once the dems in the south were no longer to keep the black people down the south became much more republican.

However things have ....

should read

However things have changed...

It's no coincidence the white South flipped from solid Dem to solid GOP after blacks in the South were finally guaranteed voting rights. All you white Southerners should be proud of that legacy (being sarcastic, of course). As a non-Southern white progressive, I can't relate to the white Southern way of thinking in cultural terms. But, as someone once said, y'all probably "don't need me around anyhow."

As a non-Southern white progressive, I can't relate to the white Southern way of thinking in cultural terms.

Once upon a time, you would likely drop the "non-" from your statement for it to be accurate. If the Democrats are serious about being progressive (and watching them tack to the center yet again in order to find that mythical "centrist" voter, I'm not convinced they are), they need to do away with this sort of thinking.

Post FDR, where have Democratic presidents come from? Truman (Missouri), Kennedy (Massachusetts), Johnson (Texas), Carter (South Carolina), and Clinton (Arkansas). We could argue about Truman, but only Kennedy is a true non-Southerner. Al Gore, a horrible candidate but a great progressive statesman ... yeah, he's from Tennessee. Kansas used to be THE hotbed of progressive politics in the United States.

If you want to just dismiss an entire region of the country (and its associated electoral votes) because you cannot look at what is happening now, then you go right ahead.

However, if you seriously want progressive politics to have some political power in Washington, perhaps finding the populist roots of the party and planting them back down in the fertile soil of the South might not be such a bad idea.

Al Gore from Tennessee? Now that's funny. Al Gore grew up in the old Fairfax Hotel in downtown Washington. Prepped at St. Albans and then onto Harvard.

Duplicate post?

What, specifically, is your problem with Warner? He's a gifted speaker, a leader among VA Democrats, and a competitive candidate for the US Senate. He's done a pretty good job of highlighting the differences between Republicans and Democrats since before he was in the national spotlight and I'm thrilled to see him at the Convention.

Courts, even before watching the keynote address, I knew that Warner was a solid but unremarkable speaker. He is a great leader among the VA Dems, and is more than just a competitve candidate for the US Senate. However, to say that he is "gifted" is a bit too charitable. Tonight, he showed that he's decent, but unmemorable as a speaker. Yes, he led Hillary Clinton, who had a terrific speech, but he was still blah when it came down to it.

I'll confess that I didn't see tonight's speech (a hard confession to make but life occasionally gets in the way of even the best intentions).

I've seen Warner speak at the Democratic Breakfast on Labor Day in Buena Vista,VA for years as well as in numerous other settings from town hall meetings to university graduations. I've always found him to be gifted. It is possible that tonight's performance did not live up to past performances, but I'll stand by my superlatives as an overall assessment of his capacities.

That being said, I agree with your assessment of the Clinton speech.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's not a great candidate. However, in the few times I have seen him speak, he comes across as ... stiff? I don't know if it is his pacing, but it doesn't have the refinement of Clinton or Obama.

Perhaps that's a bit of a difficult or unfair comparison, but we're arguing whether he's a gifted speaker.

I can see what you're saying. I think his "stiffness" occurs in direct proportion to the size of the crowd. Having seen him speak at university graduations, I can remember him coming across that way (though suprisingly I never got that impression from his State of the Commonwealth addresses). But most of my encounters have been in small groups and in those settings "stiff" is certainly not a word I'd use.

And since the convention is a large venue, I can imagine his speech last night containing some of that. (I still have to see it but I'm waiting until my last class is over for the day).

Perhaps, given that context, gifted isn't the right word. I remember seeing Senator Chuck Robb speak at a breakfast some years ago and thinking "this guy is a wonderful speaker." But that charisma and talent did not extend to speeches in front of larger crowds.

Perhaps engaging is more appropriate. I just know that every time I hear the man speak, I want to hear more.

So, have you seen the speech yet? What did you think?

Thanks for expanding your comment (if you hit the reply button below mine you can continue the discussion without starting a new thread).

I'm certainly with you on inequity and health care and I think it's essential that this election be about the issues and the different policy positions of the candidates.

Irwin, I think you'll see the rough knuckles approach coming from Biden. I suspect he'll act as the bad cop to Obama's good cop.

As for Warner, he is running a Senate race and I guess feels like he can run on his record. No need to go negative and give Gilmore something use against him (especially since Gilmore is currently polling 24 points behind Warner).

You must have watched and listened to a different speech than the one I did, Vic. Hillary did exactly what I thought she'd do. Talked the usual Demopablum which gets the crowd all whipped up and made the cutting reference to the good old days of the administration of her and her husband and mentioned Barry as the guy to carry on that legacy as a kind of afterthought. That said, it was the best speech by far of any of the speeches given so far especially in contrast to the rather embarrassing (for we Virginians) performance of Mark Warner whose "keynote" address was only slightly worse than what is generally considered the worst ever given (Bill Clinton's in '88) and only because it was mercifully more brief. When a putz like Howard Wolfson says it was a bad speech (Warner's), it's a bad speech.

I especially liked the line, "we are on the same team" (in reference to Barry). That falls into the category of a "I have full confidence in . . ." which normally means a president is about to accept someone's resignation.

Bill,
Though I respect the side of the debate you viewed this from, I can assure you I did indeed watch the same speech as you did, but from the other side of the aisle. While I will give you that Mark Warner did a less than admirable job with his speech, I felt Hillary actually made the case in no uncertain terms that McCain was NO LONGER an option if we the people wish to turn the economy around and get things back on track. She made her point as they pertain to health care, non-privatization of social security and a need to come together for one purpose and that was not to elect a Bush clone to the White House!

She did everything she could to make the party a consolidated party and gave them the best opportunity to overtake McCain in the upcoming election.